SEA FREIGHT RATES NEAR A 3-YEAR HIGH: THE COST CHALLENGE FOR EXPORTERS

When Oil Prices Surpass $100 per Barrel

The prolonged conflict involving Iran and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed global oil prices back above the $100-per-barrel mark, creating ripple effects across economies far beyond the energy market.

This is the underlying driver behind a trend the logistics industry is feeling more acutely than most: global sea freight rates have continued to rise for weeks.

Container Freight Rates Near a 3-Year High

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has risen for seven consecutive weeks, reaching 3,662.18 points in the second week of September, up 72.13 points from the previous week. This marks the seventh consecutive weekly increase, bringing the index close to the 3,733.8-point level recorded in 2024.

The immediate trigger is the conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted two critical maritime chokepoints simultaneously: the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

As key shipping routes have been affected by the U.S.-Iran conflict, many vessels have been forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. This longer route can add approximately 30 days to transit times, while more than doubling fuel costs.

Asia–Europe Route: Higher Costs, Lower Reliability

The Asia–Europe trade lane has been among the most significantly affected by these diversions.

Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope can extend Asia–Europe transit times by 10–14 days and increase costs by approximately 25–30%, while absorbing an additional 10–15% of effective global shipping capacity.

For Gulf-bound services specifically, all-in freight rates from Shenzhen to Jebel Ali have reportedly reached $8,250–$9,500 per 40-foot container, representing an increase of 35–55% compared with previous levels.

For European businesses, this has made import planning considerably more difficult and unpredictable than before.

Vietnam Is Not Immune to the Impact

Vietnam is also feeling the effects of this disruption.

In the seafood sector, export turnover reached $8 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up 11.8% year-on-year, while VASEP forecasts that full-year exports could surpass $12 billion.

However, this growth is unfolding alongside increasingly evident logistics risks. As of the end of August 2026, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) continued to assess the situation in the Strait of Hormuz as “not fully resolved.”

Meanwhile, some shipping lines have continued to impose higher Emergency Fuel Surcharges (EFS) on Asia–North America services. Reefer containers, which are particularly important for Vietnam’s seafood and frozen agricultural exports, often face separate and higher surcharges due to their greater energy consumption requirements for temperature control.

If geopolitical tensions persist, sea freight rates and cost pressures on businesses could remain elevated in the coming period.

This article has been compiled from multiple sources.